This year has been filled with some great movies so far. What are your predictions for the nominations and winners of Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress, Best Director, etc.

I'll get back to this, but it's way too early, especially this year.

Yup. Right now's about the time it starts to get interesting.

As far as I can tell - even though I haven't seen it - Dreamgirls is bound to clean up - probably win Best Picture and maybe even Best Director. The only one I'd like seeing it win (just because I'm naturally averse to musicals as a genre, and I apologize) would be Best Supporting Actor for Eddie Murphy - because this is Marty's year for Best Director, and The Departed is, straight-up, one of the greatest movies of, like, the decade.

Two movies that will unjustly get passed-over due to their lack of an Oscar campaign are Brick and Tristram Shandy: A Cock & Bull Story, not to mention Borat - which will get passed over no matter how eminently watchable it remains due to the Academy's unfortunate inability to recognize comedies...

Eastwood'll probably score a couple of nods, maybe? For his WWII double-dip (let's hope this closes the book on WWII movies NOT called Inglorious Bastards and directed by Quentin Tarantino....

The Oscars are quickly becoming the film equivalent of the Grammies, unfortunately.

Realistically:

Best Picture - Dreamgirls
Best Director - Martin Scorcese (they canNOT deny him this time)

This entire post is relatively irrelevant to the topic, but I think I'll post it anyway, cause I took the time to write this whole thing...

I don't think Dreamgirls has a chance, but Scorsese has a chance based on the way the prestige movies seem to be tanking, but right now, I'd guess neither will win. Personally, I have no problem if they give it to Marty, but The Departed is his least personal film in over 30 years. It doesn't even seem to be a Scorsese flick.

Another film on the horizon that might get some Oscar pub is The Good Shepherd.

The Good Shepherd looks like a great film that I will definitly be checking out. Also, I could see The Departed winning Scorsese his Best Director nod, and just maybe...Best Picture? Maybe, maybe not, we'll just have to wait and see...

I could also see either Dicaprio or Nicholson winning best actor for their great performances. But what are your guy's thoughts on Daniel Craig as 007, because I thought he did an unbelievable piece of acting, and what do you think about a nomination??

I thought Craig was good, but there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that he will get an Oscar nom.

The critics' groups are doling out the awards and I think I read where the influential New York Film Critics Circle gave out their awards. I can't remember all the winners, but Scorsese did win Best Director, though, unfortunatley, THE DEPARTED did not win best picture. The only other one I remember is that Forest Whitaker bagged best actor for his portray of Idi Amin. I can't even remember who they named Best Picture.

United 93, obviously.

You can stay up to date right here.

The Good Shepherd has got no chance at the Oscars IMO. Came out too late and with too little impact plus it hasn't packed the acclaim that "Letters from Iwo Jima" has so it has no real chance of entering the race. As for Iwo Jima, even without a Globe nod, it is likely to be the one movie that can trump "Dreamgirls". Personally got fingers crossed for a win for "The Departed".

I was looking forward to THE GOOD SHEPHERD, but I scanned an advance review of the film on Variety.com and it was panned. I don't know why I had such high expectations because Robert DeNiro, while a brilliant actor, doesn't have any real track record as a director other than A BRONX TALE.

The "Village Voice" also panned THE GOOD SHEPERD. Not only is it boring, according to the "Voice," but it is long and boring.

I hope Leo gets some love for his work in The Departed

you really cannot be sure. im gonna wait for the golden globes and then the nominations, just to be sure

ill probably end up killing something if dreamgirls wins. it doesnt even have universal acclaim here on metacritic (which may i add is a fuckload better than rottentomatoes.)

This is what should occur:

Recognition as it truly should be (in my opinion):
Best Movie - The Good Shepherd
Best Director - David Lynch, Inland Empire
Best Actress - Laura Dern, Inland Empire
Best Actor - Matt Damon, The Good Shepherd
Best Supporting Actress - Sharon Stone, Bobby
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey Jr., A Scanner Darkly
Best Original Screenplay - Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Best Adapted Screenplay - Richard Linklater, A Scanner Darkly
Best Documentary - Tie: Andy Warhol: A Documentary & When The Levees Broke
Best Foreign Film – Still Life

Runner Ups:
Best Movie – Inland Empire
Best Director – Robert DeNiro, The Good Shepherd
Best Actress – Helen Mirren, The Queen
Best Actor – Ryan Gosling, Half – Nelson
Best Supporting Actor – Michael Sheen, The Queen
Best Supporting Actress – Dianne Ladd, Inland Empire
Best Original Screenplay – David Lynch, Inland Empire
Best Adapted Screenplay – Peter Morgan, The Queen
Best Documentary – My Country, My Country
Best Foreign Film – Volver

Judging by the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences the domination will be by DiCaprio, Eastwood, Scorsese, Dream Girls, and others that prefer to film "secure" movies.

who will win?
best picture picture

1. the departed ( if it wins awards in acting, directing AND writing, its probably the best film all year)
2.babel (babel may actually win BECAUSE all the other films will be nominated elsewhere)
3. dreamgirls (lost momentum since lower than expected critical reception)
4. the queen (not enough of a following)
5. little miss sunshine ( this film is far too old at this point, but will likely score a nod anyhow just cause it is such a beloved film)


best director

1. martin scorsese
2. bill condon
3. stephen frears
4. dayton+farris
5. gonzalex inarritu


actor
1. forest whitaker
2. leonardo dicaprio
3. peter o'toole
4. ryan gosling
5. will smith


actress

1. helen mirren
2. kate winslet
3. penelope cruz
4. judi dench
5. meryl streep


supporting actor

1. eddie murphy
2. alan arkin
3. jack nicholson
4. djimon honsou
5. brad pitt

supporting actress
1. jennifer hudson
2. rinko kikuchi
3. cate blanchett
4. abagail breslin
5. adrian bazarra


screenplay

adapted: the departed

original

the queen

cinematography
children of men (realism before beauty in this case)

animated
happy feet (though cars DID gross more, this one came around closer to oscar season and did get more critical acclaim + its the only animated film on the afi selections)


documentary
an inconvenient truth


foreign
im gonna have some cojones on this one and say

i lied about my queen reasoning

voters will honor queen mirren and feel theyve paid theyre royal dues

btw i meant to say pan's labyrinth for foreign

I think UNITED 93 deserves something. It should at least get a best director nomination.

Helen Mirren in THE QUEEN is like P. S. Hoffman in CAPOTE last year. There's a very small chance the academy could throw a curve ball but it's pretty much a lock.

Best Picture...I have no idea. Could it end up like the Clint Eastwood vs. Scorcese duel from two years ago? (Million Dollar Baby vs. The Aviator)