Well there havent been to many "WOW" movies this year but I gotta say Crash is probably my favorite so far this year followed by Sin City and a few others. To early to say though now!

Philip Seymour Hoffman has the Best Actor Oscar sewn up for Capote. I also think Munich will do well, but you never know.

Surprisingly, in late Novemeber, it's still to early to call. The only movies released that really seem to have a shot at best picture are "Capote", "A History of Violence", "Good Night and Good Luck", and possibly "The Constant Gardener" (which I think most people will forget about by the time oscar noms roll around). Movies which originally looked like surefire Oscar material like "Walk the Line", are getting mediocre reviews.

Some upcoming films that look like they may have a shot include the aforementioned "Brokeback Mountain", "Memoirs of a Geisha" directed by Chicago's Rob Marshall, and "Syriana", the first film by Traffic screenwriter Stephen Gaghan, about middle east oil.

If "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Syriana" both do well, this could be quite the year for George Clooney. Just eight short years after he commited the crime against humanity known as "Batman & Robin".

quote:

Originally posted by mark f:
Philip Seymour Hoffman has the Best Actor Oscar sewn up for Capote. I also think Munich will do well, but you never know.

I agree that Munich will make a good showing. A couple wildcards which I am anxious to see are The Libertine and The New World. There's a fair amount of buzz surrounding both, and if the reviews are kind, you never know. Also, I agree PSH probably has the win sewn up, but look for Anthony Hopkins as the elder statesman in the best actor category for The World's Fastest Indian.

Yeah, the advance word on BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is good and Heath Ledger's performance is supposed to be excellent. It opens, in limited release, Friday.

I'm not going out on a limb by making these two predictions, but pencil in Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joquin Phoenix for Best Actor Academy Award noms for CAPOTE & WALK THE LINE repsectively.

I expect Naria will break out and provide a qualitatively, award-winning experience this Friday. Unfortunately, the novels on which there were based haven't caught on as well as Harry Potter but they have had a longer history and thus greater audience of older people some who have children so this movie may be driven as much by parents as the children, balancing the odds for a great turnout.

i think Constant Gardener will grab some attention. As will Walk the Line. I'm concerned that there was too much buzz put on Joaquin Phoenix with his Johnny Cash, but I think Reese Witherspoon's career is about due for a boost. Oscar would help her get roles she deserves.

If Philip Seymour Hoffman does NOT at least get NOMINATED for Capote, we can safely say the Academy hates all that is good and just. Being a total 'mo, I naturally hope that Brokeback Mountain is nominated and wins. If it can't quite reach Best Picture, I think adapted screenplay and some acting awards would get the point across.

I would REALLY like to see Jeff Daniels come away with a nomination for Squid and the Whale. He may be one of the most reliable actors around.

Other throw-ins: Grizzly Man for best doc nom, Good Night, and Good Luck - David Strathairn, Felicity Huffman - TransAmerica, I'm sure Narnia and Kong with battle some technical awards, I'd like to see Rob Marshall pull some noms/awards with Memoirs of a Geisha.

...and i just noticed I echoed what a lot of other people said.

Best Picture Oscar Noms (predictions as of right now):

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
MUNICH
KING KONG
THE CONSTANT GARDENER

DARK HORSES: CRASH, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, SYRIANA, WALK THE LINE

GEISHA IS SLOWING FALLING BY THE WAYSIDE DUE TO BAD REVIEWS. IT SHOULD RACK UP THE TECH NOMS. THOUGH.

MATCH POINT NEEDS SOME BUZZ TO HAVE ANY CHANCES AT NOMINATIONS OTHER THAN BEST ORG. SCREENPLAY.

THE NEW WORLD HAS MIXED BUZZ SUGGESTING IT MAY BE TOO ECCENTRIC FOR THE ACADEMY. COUNT THAT OUT.

If "Match Point" is as good as people say it is (i.e. the best thing Woody's done since "Hannah and her Sisters"), I believe it will get nominated. The academy usually loves to nominate him, even for sub-par work. If he's actually given them something great, he'll undoubtedly get some noms.

Even though Kong is getting good reviews, I find it hard to believe it'll get a Best Picture nom. Although I could be wrong. The Academy seems to believe Peter Jackson is the best thing since sliced bread.