Indeed, I would have to say that there are no egregious omissions from the list this year, but there were a few surprises in the closest categories: Actor and Director. Admittedly, everyone in both categories deserves to be there--it's just a shame that all of the great contributions couldn't be recognized. Howard snagging a nomination was probably my biggest surprise. I had anticipated Jeff Daniels coming up with the Bill Murray-esque nod or Ralph Fiennes for The Constant Gardener, but perhaps the only performance that was truly robbed was Naomi Watts in King Kong, which was totally snubbed. I really thought Kong had a lot of Oscar potential, so I was surprised to see it virtually absent from the list. Even though I did not see Memoirs of a Geisha, I think it fell into the same sort of fate, with Marshall and Ziyi Zhang being ignored.

Overall, I'm pleased with the nominations though. Here are my predictions:

PICTURE: I think Good Night, and Good Luck is the only picture that has a chance of upsetting Brokeback, albeit a very outside chance.

DIRECTOR: Again, Clooney will challenge Lee.

ACTOR: This will be the closet call. Hoffman or Ledger could easily take it, as I think they both are deserving. If Brokeback sweeps, then Hoffman will win. If any upsets happen, then Ledger or even Strathairn, could steal this one and shock everyone.

ACTRESS: Between Reese and Felicity this one's neck and neck. If Brokeback is the theme of the awards, then Huffman will indeed upset. Otherwise, Witherspoon's got it on lock.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: My money's on Gyllenhal now, although a month ago I would have said Clooney.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: The most wide open category. I say Michelle Williams takes it in a Brokeback sweep, with Weisz running out of steam after surprising everyone at the other ceremonies.

ADAPTED: Brokeback - that's a "Gimme' Oscar"

ORIGINAL: Good Night, because Clooney has to take home something and the picture definitely deserves it.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Brokeback

FOREIGN: Paradise Now

ANIMATED: Wallace and Gromitt

DOCUMENTARY: Enron, with Murderball potential stealing to attract the MTV generation in a nod similar to Eminem winning best song.

I was a little bummed that "A History of Violence" got snubbed in the Best Picture catagory, and that Maria Bello's performance was snubbed.

Although I really liked "Crash", I was a little suprised to see it get so many nominations, since it seemed like so many people really hated it.

I agree about A History of Violence. Although, at least it was nominated for a writing award along with movies like The Squid and the Whale and Match Point, which were also largely overlooked.

I was surprised not to see "Grizzly Man" as a nominee for Best Documentary. I haven't seen most of the others, but that got a ton of positive reviews, and I enjoyed it a lot.

I am so happy with the Academy Award best picture nominee list - it's great! And I'm personally glad and not suprised to see Crash make the list, especially considering its strong showing at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I too am disappointed with the at the omission of Maria Bello A History of Violence, but the Best Actress list still is strong and I am also happy to see Charlize Theron (North Country nominated though Reese Witherspoon and her singing performances and acting performances are surely a plus. I still like Munich or Crash to win major awards.

I think there was something strange about the qualification process for documentaries and foreign films that kept Grizzly Man and Cache out of the awards. I know that Cache was denied because Hanneke is Austrian and the film he submitted was in French, so the Academy said it didn't qualify. As for Grizzly Man, I'm unsure. Maybe someone can reply with the answer. I think it certainly deserved a nod; probably even a win.

I saw that it's going to be on the Discovery Channel this Friday. Isn't that why Farenheit 9/11 couldn't have been nominated it was on TV or something?

quote:

Originally posted by ericg75:
I was a little bummed that "A History of Violence" got snubbed in the Best Picture catagory, and that Maria Bello's performance was snubbed.

Although I really liked "Crash", I was a little suprised to see it get so many nominations, since it seemed like so many people really hated it.

I agree about A History of Violence but I figured it wouldn't be up for best pic. I am pumped though that it's up for best adapted screenplay and best supporting actor, William Hurt.

If Crash wins best pic I'm going for the pill jar.

The diqualification of Cache is bogus! That movie was excellent... Hanneke got robbed.

I'm also surprised that Naomi Watts didn't get a nom for Kong... watching the last 25 minutes, where there's almost no dialogue, her eyes just about destroyed me, and she has to imagine an ape while doing that... Haven't seen Transamerica, but I was incredibly impressed with Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line, so I'm definitely pulling for her.

Best Supporting Actor I kind of don't care for all that much, hopefully Gyllenhaal, just because the two that actually deserve it, Matt Damon (Syriana) and Ed Harris (H.O.V.) were somehow outvoted by their own co-stars.

Also, to NButler: Memoirs got exactly the number of nominations it deserved. Nothing less. It wasn't horrible, but Rob Marshall's no Ang Lee.

I think that Hoffman will win, both because Brokeback WILL win Best Picture, and because Ledger's relatively new to the Academy's radar, maybe the former point moreso than the latter, but both will play a part in his victory, even though my own personal opinion is that Ledger out-Philip-Seymour-Hoffmans Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Plus the Academy definitely has a thing for biopics (i.e., Ray), so Hoffman and Phoenix have that edge for Best Actor.

Here are some of my predictions/hopes:

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain, almost definitely (only one I've seen is crash)

Director: toss up, probably Ang Lee or Clooney

Lead Actress: Probably Reese Witherspoon, otherwise Felicity Huffman

Lead Actor: I bet Hoffman will get this one easily (hard to believe it's the same guy that was in Along Came Polly)

Supporting Actress: I havent seen any of those, no clear standout

Supporting Actor: I hope William Hurt wins, but I bet they just gave him the nom as a gesture. It'll porbably go to George Clooney or Jake Gyllenhaal

Animated Film: I'm with Wallace & Gromit all the way and i think they have a pretty good chance (the academy might be a bit too creeped out by corpse bride)

I definitely agree with most of what you have to say, but it suprised me that out of the number of great Hoffman performances, you cited Along Came Polly. I hope that everyone has had the chance to see him in Boogie Nights, Happiness, Magnolia, Love Liza, The Big Lebowski, and 25th Hour among others. His performances in those movies certainly demonstrates why this year he's getting his just desserts for taking on the role of Capote.

I have seen all four picture nominees except for Munich and I just really love Crash. My girlfriend just recently bought it for me and after I saw it for the second and the third time, I really feel it is the best picture of the year. I also thoroughly enjoyed Good Night and Good Luck but I still like Crash more. I think that Hoffman will win best actor, although just like everyone else has said, it is the toughest category, but isnt that the case almost every year?

I think Ang Lee will win Best Director, but although I did like Brobeback Mountain I dont think it is as amazing as everyone says it is. I think Crash is an overall stronger film.

quote:

Originally posted by NButler11:
I definitely agree with most of what you have to say, but it suprised me that out of the number of great Hoffman performances, you cited Along Came Polly. I hope that everyone has had the chance to see him in Boogie Nights, Happiness, Magnolia, Love Liza, The Big Lebowski, and 25th Hour among others. His performances in those movies certainly demonstrates why this year he's getting his just desserts for taking on the role of Capote.

This is very true, he is a great actor and has been for a very long time. Dont forget Punch-Drunk Love and The Talented Mr. Ripley, he acted great in those as well.

quote:

I definitely agree with most of what you have to say, but it suprised me that out of the number of great Hoffman performances, you cited Along Came Polly. I hope that everyone has had the chance to see him in Boogie Nights, Happiness, Magnolia, Love Liza, The Big Lebowski, and 25th Hour among others. His performances in those movies certainly demonstrates why this year he's getting his just desserts for taking on the role of Capote.

I was actually referring to it because it's probably one of his lesser roles and he's come a long way since then

Word. Speaking of Capote, though, I'm really blown away by Bennett Miller. I couldn't believe it when I read that Capote was his first feature. There's a great interview in Newsweek online with all of the directors who were nominated this year. A pretty lengthy read, but well worth it. Miller definitely seems to hold his own among such a prestigious group.

I just saw Brokeback Mountain this previous friday, and although thought it was very well done, and somewhat "revolutionary" as one would say, I am not sure it is worth best picture.

Part of the problem is that people are seeing Brokeback late in the season after all of the hype. When that happens, I think everyone walks into the theater with unmeetable expectations. Brokeback is turning into the gay Star Wars prequel and I think that's unfortunate. I can't think of a love story that has ever recieved such attention from the media, and although it seems to be helping push the film into position to take home an Oscar, it also seems to be taking away from the film's power. I saw it in December when it was just starting to catch fire after the festival season and when most of the audience was gay and not just curious - perhaps that's why I cling to the idea that this film definitely deserves Best Picture. Besides my personal favorites, the only other film that comes close in my book is Good Night, and Good Luck.

I think "he" picked one correctly (Best Actress), but I guess we'll find out soon enough.